While the $140 scenario is a serious warning, Oxford Economics notes that the odds of this outcome remain low for now. A more plausible scenario, according to the authors, would be for oil prices to average around $100 per barrel, in line with where prices have fallen for most of the past few weeks. Much depends on when the conflict might wind down and the strait becomes safe to navigate again, allowing oil and natural gas exports to leave the Gulf once again. Trump administration officials recently said several weeks could still pass before hostilities subside.
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